Applying Climate Information in Africa An Assessment of Current Knowledge

Statistical methods of climate prediction Analog year forecasts Dynamical climate models Presentation of uncertainty Predicting seasonal climate variability and climate change Conclusions Effects of predictable climate variability on harvests and incomes What are farmers' information needs? How can climate information be best communicated to farmers? Factors limiting farmers' use of climate information Farmers' use of traditional forecasts and modern climate information Benefits to farmers of using climate information Conclusions Acknowledgments This report would not have been possible without the assistance of a great number of people. We would primary like to thank Kabineh Konneh at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who had the idea to prepare an assessment for Africa, and who worked continually to find funding for it, and to smooth administrative channels. We would like to thank the staff at the three African regional cen-tres—ACMAD, ICPAC, and DMCH—who contributed a great deal of time and effort to provide us with necessary information, and to help organize meetings and stakeholder workshops. Finally, we would like to thank the people who provided intellectual input, in particular those who commented on a previous draft of this report: The past twelve years have seen a major international effort to make climate information useful for sustainable development in Africa. One of the drivers has been the growing skill with which cli-matologists can predict seasonal climate, such as total rainfall, based on a combination of climate and ocean models, and a better understanding of global climate cycles, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Africa is one of the most, if not the most, vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change and variability. This has not just to do with climatic and physical features of the continent, but also with social and political features. Vulnerability is linked not only to a community's exposure to climatic disruptions, but also to its sensitivity to those disruptions, and its capacity to adapt to the changes. The economies of most African countries are highly dependent on agriculture, the economic sector that is arguably most sensitive to climate variability and change. Malaria and other tropical diseases—outbreaks of which are linked to climate factors—negatively affect the health of millions of Africans, and hinder wider development efforts. But the dominant factor influencing Africa's vulnerability is poverty. This poverty indicates that many people are at the edge of survival, and will suffer not just lost of income but also …